Refueling Psychotic-Optimism

Until September, this shall be our last public article prior to our return from hiatus after the Labor Day holiday.

Fed Saves Markets From Near-Meltdown:
In light of the Feds clandestine shattering of the discount window in the wee-hours of Friday morning, we really do not have much to add to last weeks rant about Ponzi-Regimes coming to the rescue of grossly mismanaged markets.

Down how much? – And already requiring immediate emergency rescue measures?
Last Thursday, stock markets were off their historic highs by around 10%, and most major metropolitan housing-markets are down anywhere from 5% - 10% at best.

Certain regions like Manhattan, have experience little if any downward adjustment to their mega-bloated values - some 200% - 300% above their former 1998 values.

Nonetheless, such minor disturbances amid a perpetual debt-based prosperity-paradigm require immediate intervention by central banking cartels – with endless assistance to follow as needed.

Why Not Intervene When Markets are rising in Parabolic Buying-Panics?
There seems to be no cause for concern when various housing markets ballooned over 200% in the course of 6-short years – or when equity markets rise in extended parabolic fashion.

As far as housing is concerned, such rapid appreciation of monolithic proportions are one-off historic anomalies requiring serious downward adjustment however, most everyone would ignorantly wish to return to such a mirage, and forever embrace such folly as the “norm.”

Making Waves:
In our view, the only positive effects of such meddling are the unmistakable footprints of Elliott Waves - which remain clearly marked in the wake of price action – regardless of intervention.

The Week in Review:


The NDX:
The NDX relinquished last week’s trendline big-time. Though violated substantially, long-term trends remain up.

The rebound off the weekly low, attributable in large part to the Fed’s continued interventions, left the index down 1.89% on the week.

We suspect strategic short-sellers would beg, borrow, and steal to gain equal favor of such omnipotent forces in incessantly working toward their fundamental causes.

However flawed, traders must be cognizant of this inherent bullish prejudice, and adapt accordingly.

Below is a common example of our approach in adapting to such flaws:
The chart below documents last weeks short-term trade-triggers and price-targets captured from Elliott Wave Technology’s Near Term Outlook.


For active traders of all time-horizons, there is no better road map for navigating market indices than the Near Term Outlook.

Transparency, disclosure, and selling the truth
Bear in mind the above illustration reflects a portion of trade set-ups clearly identified by our adaptive short-term price forecasting methods. It does not depict nor represent a sequentially hand-delivered trade recommendation-history for those yearning for blind-faith trade instruction.

There are no free rides in life - especially when it comes to financial speculation
Although we set forth our short-term market forecasts with stunning clarity, traders still need to work the provided landscape vigorously in order to extract the large bounties regularly offered by dynamic markets.


Now let’s see how the rest of the majors performed during last week’s funk…


After setting fresh multi-year lows just a week ago - following news that its manufacturers are playing a key role in “rescuing the world” from the effects of their “marked-to-nothing-but-faith” products and mutant offspring - The Dollar has curiously begun to rise. Such a show of confidence leads us to wonder if Mr. Bernanke has been consulting with Mr. Rubin on recent matters.

The action over the past four-weeks has The Dow looking more like a “slinky” than the premier equity market of the globe. Although overwhelmingly bullish longer-term, the Dow continues to show signs of vulnerability over the near-term.



A likely result of the feds interventions along with sudden dollar stability, Gold resolved its double inside bars to the downside – returning to its intermediate-term coiling pattern.

In viewing the 6-month weekly bar chart for The S&P, it certainly looks like the beginnings of “crash” - longer-term however; this ailing index also supports a major long-term uptrend.


Until September …

Trade Better / Invest Smarter…

Joseph Russo
Publisher & Chief Market Analyst
ELLIOTT WAVE TECHNOLOGY
Email Author

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Bulls and Bears Square-off (for keeps)

BULLS and BEARS (held equally at task)

The Minor and Intermediate degrees of trend have finally been shaken.

Amid such malaise:
Elliott Wave Technology continues to deliver a rather stunning amplitude of price-target captures during the recent turmoil.

The financial markets are at critical juncture, and as such, the days and weeks ahead will reveal volumes as to the markets future intent.

Stay tuned...

Server and Transition Update:
Our website now resides on a new server, facilitated by our web-developers.

The developers inform us that they have provided a solution to resume normal “content access” from the member login page. As such, we may resume “normal” access delivery with Monday’s report.

In effort to avoid any potential “Internet connection glitch” at our temporary location, we shall make every attempt to complete Monday’s report prior to our first-stage physical-move this Saturday morning.

If need be, we will keep all clients informed of progress via e-mail, or from our blog-page.

We were informed that the new server requires 24-48 hrs to “propagate,” (whatever that means) which explains why we have not been receiving e-mails through the website. Should anyone have sent us mail void of reply, it is likely we have not yet received it.

Once again - during this temporary transition and challenge, your continued patience is greatly appreciated,

-Joe

PS
Who is bluepasta?

Desperately searching for a client with the address:

bluepasta@hotmail.co.jp

The address above continually returns the following message:

Mail System Error - Returned Mail
Recipient:
Reason: Requested action not taken: mailbox unavailable

As a result, the most recently e-mailed subscriptions and special bonus-charts have not gotten through.

Please contact us with a working mailbox so we may send these reports, and provide regular notifications in the future.

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SERVER UPDATE:

Due to a recent spate of “errors,” we have started the process of switching servers.

During the configuration and set up process, we will not be able to post subscriptions through the member login area of website as normal.

Starting today, and all throughout this configuration period, all NTO members will receive both regular issues and evening posts via direct e-mails with PDF file attachments.

The first thing we are doing is to relocate our site to a stable server. This temporary switch should take effect by Monday.

Thereafter, we will be acquiring a dedicated server and hosting platform, which will require some time to set-up and configure.

We have yet to obtain a time-estimate for when the “cutover” will be complete.

When everything is complete, we will notify clients as to when we will be returning to accessing content by the usual means (from the member login area on our homepage.)

Thank you.

PS.

Clients will still be able to access the Interim Monthly Forecast, and Millennium Wave Quarterly reports along will all existing archives - as usual - via the member login page.

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Remember these dates:

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT:

From Monday August 27 through Monday September 3 (Market Holiday),
Elliott Wave Technology will be in process of moving both residence, and business operations cross-country to the east coast.

During this one-week period, we will be unable to publish the Near Term Outlook, nor the new interim "Evening Posts."

We shall provide full-credit for this interruption - by way of extending current subscriptions for an additional week.

We will do this automatically by delaying the rebilling cycle-process to credit all clients for the number of issues missed.

The NTO will resume regular publications on Wednesday September 5.

Logistics dictate that our move take place in two-stages.

We will begin to experience interim transitional constraints relative to the first-stage of the move - beginning on Friday August 17, throughout August 24.

Barring any technical problems in establishing internet service at our interim (or final) destination, we do not expect to miss any publications (including the “Evening Posts”) during this period – although commentaries may be somewhat shorter.

Should markets settle down by then - or even if they do not – perhaps those clients who have amassed substantial profits over recent months, might wish to consider this period a good time to step back from the trading arena, and smell the roses – you have certainly earned it!

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Ponzi-Regimes to the Rescue

Kindly indulge us - as we pen this week’s intro in the spirit and humor of a Dennis Miller-rant.

We cannot help but find it amusing that:
Those institutions whom are complicit in adhering to paradigm-doctrines - passed down and mutated from the founding architects, masterminds, and mass-producers of worthless fiat-paper, (global central banking cartels) suddenly find it essential to “rescue” over-bloated, and still highly-overvalued markets from a crisis of inevitability (on par with 911?) spawned from the very godfather of Ponzi-Schemes from which they steward.

In a rather twisted analogy: (Wrapping up the rant)
The above is akin to continually re-appointing a board of known-pedophiles and sex-offenders to preside over a conglomerate-monopoly of worldwide playgrounds and child-care centers. Having provided them with full-unfettered power in maintaining a hands-on controlling interest, for reasons yet unknown to humankind, we then collectively harbor the brilliance of mind, to rely exclusively upon this board for remedy and solution to the vicious cycles of ongoing child-abuse experienced at their facility. Are we all completely insane?

Making Waves:
From our perspective, the only positive affects of incessant meddling in supposed free-markets – are the unmistakable footprints of “Elliott Waves,” which remain clearly marked in the wake of such malfeasance.

The Week in Review:

General Equity Indices –
Singing to the Global Cartel of Central Bankers…

…“Catch Me Now - I’m Falling”

The NDX:
After treading briefly below last weeks support-line, the NDX managed to close spot-on this critical trendline boundary.

Barley hanging on to what remains a zone of comfort inside the boundaries of a long-term bullish-uptrend channel - the NDX has its work cutout in the days and weeks ahead.

Despite cries of Armageddon:

The Bull has been stirred – but not yet shaken
One should remain opened to maintaining general levels of collective psychotic-optimism in the promise and hope of Fed-led rescue efforts – however, one should also continue to prepare for the worst in the event such omnipotent forces of world influence flat-out fail.

At the pilot’s continued request, please keep your safety belts securely fastened, and your seat backs in their standard upright positions.


A Financial PANIC and Crisis-Situation on par with 911?

They have got to be kidding us, right?

In our view, the current crisis has spawned from institutions misguidedly adopting a perpetual debt-based prosperity paradigm. Such a systemic-born crisis’ will inevitably require dismantling, and renovation from the bottom up.

The recent malaise is nothing more than another layer upon which cumulative miss-steps have been taken over multiple decades in attempt to preserve, subvert, and control the natural order of what used to be free-markets.

Authoritarian Free Enterprise aside
Elliott Waves continue to lay their footprints with glaring clarity. The immediate $64-trillion-dollar question - is whether this antiquated, and elite system of inevitable misfortune, has finally placed its last straw atop the peoples back.

We shall soon find out whether the markets will be printing fresh historic highs by years-end, or begin unleashing a truly debilitating period of reckoning for many years to come.

Elliott Wave Technology remains at the forefront in producing unrivaled, well-organized, and stunningly accurate guides to long and short-term market forecasting.

For those compelled to participate and profit from such volatile crisis-bearing opportunities, acquiring a reliable source of adept and impartial navigation council will provide the all-essential trading-edge required to adapt profitably - no matter what the market may deliver.

In addition, such practical guidance will render long-term utility in how one perceives and engages financial markets in any time-horizon.

The chart below documents last weeks trade-triggers and price-targets captured from Elliott Wave Technology’s Near Term Outlook.

For active traders of all time-horizons, there is no better road map for navigating market indices than the Near Term Outlook.

As evidenced by recent news of significant losses at “black-box” quant-funds, no mechanical trading systems or algorithms can anticipate directional moves with the agility, speed, and precision rendered by our adaptive method of short-term forecasting.


Now let’s see how the rest of the majors performed last week…

After setting fresh multi-year lows earlier in the week - amid news that its manufacturer is taking a leadership role in “rescuing the world” from the affects of its products and offspring - The Dollar has suddenly gathered some strength.

After printing fresh lows for the move on Friday, The Dow managed to close marginally higher on the week, but remains stuck beneath the base of its previous trading range. Although overwhelmingly bullish longer-term, the Dow continues to show signs of vulnerability over the short-run.

Gold failed to follow through on last weeks feeble attempt at breaking above the previous weeks inside bar. As a result, we now have a potentially more powerful array of “two successive” inside compression bars. Next week should prove interesting.

Since it has been one of the worst recent performers, it is only fitting that The S&P closed the week with a wider margin of cushion above its recently muted trend channel boundary.


Until next time …


Trade Better / Invest Smarter…
Joseph Russo
Publisher & Chief Market Analyst
ELLIOTT WAVE TECHNOLOGY
Email Author

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Back Online in Less than an Hour

We're are pleased and impressed that technical personnel was available to reboot our server so quickly.

Not enough to give them a second chance however.

We will be acquiring a superior - dedicated server as soon as humanly possible.

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Server Down AGAIN!

1:30 AM PST:

We were just made aware that our server has gone down again.

We have once again - notified our "host" of this recurring problem via their emergency hot-line.

Their emergency tech-support is nothing more than a phone-line answering system, which to their credit, is promptly tended to when employees arrive at 9:00 AM EST.

Because of this time logistic - it is likely the server will be re-booted and brought back on line around the same time it was on Wednesday - right at, or shortly before the open.

If you do not do so already, might we suggest "saving" each PDF file once it is downloaded for future recall.

We have posted all of Fridays charts and analysis more than six-hours ago. We trust many of you "saved" those files to disc for advance-review prior to today's session.

We are nearly done with our commentary, but will be unable to upload it until the server comes back on line.

We have already taken action on this matter.

We have instructed our web-developers to acquire contract with a "host" that provides a custom dedicated vs shared server.

We hope that their estimate of one-week's time to effect the switch in service and configuration is accurate.

In the interim - we will pressure our current provider to assure better reliability.

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Server's-Back

After being down for about 30-minutes - we have re-established our server connection.

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Server-Down

Our web-host server is experiencing an outage. We are making every effort to work with then in restoring service.

Since we have switched hosting services in June, we have experienced such outages far more than is acceptable.

Because of the repeated problems, we will be making arrangements to acquire a new dedicated server along with a new host provider immediately.

In the interim, we will do all that is technically possible to maintain continuous and uninterrupted service.

If it is any consolation - (although somewhat delayed as a result of this recent outage) our commentary was going arrive "late" just before the open. In part - due to the additional time-factors involved in listing "price-levels."

PS...
"KEEP" was the resounding majority response for the inclusion of specific price levels with our commentary.

Thank You for your patience and understanding as we work through this temporary glitch.

Regards,

Joe

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Dynamic (S) (R) and Trigger Levels

A SUBSCRIPTION-WIDE NOTE ON LOCATING DYNAMIC (S), (R), AND ASSOCIATED TRIGGER-LINES:

Falling Dynamic Resistance (DR) levels move lower with each passing session - while Rising (DR) levels move higher with each passing session.

Should the majority of clients favor inclusion of these numbers with our commentary, we will make every attempt to specify these “dynamic numbers” as often as possible.

Should the majority find the plethora of numbers a strain, or otherwise cumbersome or detrimental to the commentaries, we will keep them at minimum.

Bear in mind that as a result, commentaries will take considerably longer to procure and may likely contain an intermittent array of errors and typos.

Please feel free to add your thoughts, preferences, or other suggestions in the comments section below.

We appreciate your participation in helping us serve you better.


Regards,
Joe

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Volatility Delivers Wake-Up Call to Financial Sphere

By Joseph Russo

ElliottWaveTechnology.com

8/3/2007

Likely resulting from decades of imprudent financial engineering, the uncertainty-surrounding discovery as to the potential extent of collateral damage from such shenanigans remains immeasurable and unknown.

Similar to the engineers about to embark on months of investigation as to the cause of the sudden bridge collapse in the city of Minnesota - the omnipotent financial sphere is just beginning to access whether or not the minor structural fractures, (which market volatility has so blatantly revealed) could possibly morph into a sudden and total collapse of similar dimension.

The Week in Review:

Highlighting the NASDAQ 100

General Equity Indices Threaten Notable Breakdowns going forward

Friday’s dismal weekly close did nothing to improve upon the numerous technical underpinnings that were riding on last week’s performance.

Although the NDX broke down below last week’s trendline, we graciously offer it a second such boundary to prove itself.

The low close beneath levels of the past seven weekly bars, has evoked a “sell-signal” basis the good old-fashioned 4-week rule. (John Murphy’s Technical Analysis of Financial Markets)

Breadth stinks quite frankly - as all of the major Bullish Percent Indices (including the Dow’s) have flagged sector-wide sell signals upon significant reversal breaches below their overbought 70-levels.

Despite capitulation-optimism surrounding high VIX/VXN readings relative to recent years, historically, the VIX becomes contrarian-bullish at levels above 30. Still a ways to go…

Apart from all of the plausible doom and gloom, longer-term uptrends remain firmly in tact, and at some point, a major reaction rally will prepare for take-off.

Although one should maintain general levels of optimism (after all, the bull is NOT dead yet) one should also be prepared for the absolute worst.

At the pilot’s request, please keep your safety belts securely fastened, and your seat backs in their standard upright positions.

post 2002 - Is volatility attempting to return to historical Norms – AGAIN!

Such question will be answered in due time, and will be contingent upon success of the financial spheres fresh layers of adopted rescue attempts.

In the interim, we continue our own brand of “business as usual.” The chart below documents archived trade triggers, and recent price target captures from Elliott Wave Technology’s Near Term Outlook.

For active traders of all time-horizons, there is no better road map for navigating markets than the Near Term Outlook.

To our knowledge, no mechanical trading systems or algorithms can anticipate directional moves with the agility, speed, and precision rendered by our dynamic method of short-term forecasting.

Re-read “Navigating Near-Term Volatility” for a refresher on just how we forecast and anticipate critical market turning points.


That said - Let’s see how the rest of the majors are holding up…

After a brief peek above last weeks sharp downtrend line, the Dollar reversed sharply lower on Friday - threatening to retest multi-year lows.

The Dow (hands-down market leader since 2002) gave up further ground last week – closing dangerously below its former trading range. Although still overwhelmingly bullish longer-term, the Dow continues to show signs of stress.

Last weeks inside compression bar for Gold, has potential to set-off major fireworks in either direction for the week ahead. Watch the US-Fiat Dollar for clues, and hold on to your hats.

The S&P looks downright ugly! Since it has destroyed its previous two uptrend lines, we shall grace it with a third, and “last chance” boundary to maintain any semblance of upward trajectory.

A special note to current and prospective NTO clients:
Elliott Wave Technology prepares detailed analytics for the major indices each Monday, Wednesday, and Friday - prior to the open.



NTO members who actively trade indices short-term, are encouraged to check our blog-page on Monday and Wednesday evenings - after the close.



These bi-weekly, "post-close" updates will relay actionable developments, which may have arisen during the previous session that may have impact in advance of trade on Tuesday's and Thursday's.



Until next time …


Trade Better / Invest Smarter…
Joseph Russo
Publisher & Chief Market Analyst
ELLIOTT WAVE TECHNOLOGY
http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/
Email Author

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Pending Crash or Capitulation?

Severe declines of magnitude in overnight futures were notably mitigated by the time cash markets opened.

The rapid and manic back & forth chops were apparent effects of smaller degree triangles working their way through resolution.

The Dow was by far, the stand-out performer of the session.

At the close, the markets reversed sharply higher, ending the day with respectable gains following a topsy-turvy (capitulation?) session.

Though we are not yet out of the woods, the potential for a near-term capitulation-low has increased substantially with today's action.

After experiencing the typical end-of-month "correction" anomalies noted in recent reports, August appears to have gotten off to a good start thus far.

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