Friday, March 7, 2014

The DOW: Long-Term Elliott Wave Analysis Brief

It’s hard to believe that the rally in stocks from the 2009 bear market low is now 5-years in the making.  Given that the last downturn lasted just 2-years, and that numerous equity markets have recently printed fresh historic highs, the argument that the ongoing bull market run is nothing but a bear market rally, is a rather weak one.  However, considering the pressing challenges within the real economy (X-Wall Street), the rather fragile geopolitical climate, and the slew of intractable budgetary troubles around the globe, it is rather surprising that we have witnessed this type of persistent and aggressive bull market continuing to evolve amid such quantified uncertainties.  Clearly, there is a grand disconnect at play.

By now, we suspect it is obvious to most, that state sponsored central banks have been aggressively propping up (rigging) all financial markets by whatever means necessary.  In case you had not noticed, free market capitalism has been absent for several decades now.  What we have instead, is a growing police state of global fascism.  Ultimately, in due course, the ongoing desperate measures of such corrupt forces will result in another catastrophic failure far worse than the last.  Until that final-tick passes across the tape, there is no limit to the contrived market extremes occurring on many exchanges. 
 The following is our current read of the Elliott Wave tealeaves for the Dow Industrials.  Before we endeavor to briefly articulate the wave count for the Dow, let us first define four upside price targets that have established themselves via simple chart pattern breakouts.

As noted on chart at the green up-arrows, the 18721 and 19725 targets shall remain defended so long as the market trades above the falling green trendlines from which each of these targets has spawned.  In addition, we have derived noted targets of 17796 and 18151 via Fibonacci price extensions calculated from key pivots within this long-term monthly chart. 
Technically, having no choice other than to ignore the fascist rigging of what should have otherwise been a complete collapse in the financial system circa 2008-2009; we are observing the 6469.95 bottom as an A-wave of Cycle dimension.  The five-year miracle that follows, is tracing out a larger three-wave advance as defined by the primary degree red labels of A, B, and an eventual wave C, which remains in progress.  Plausible turn months of interest on the chart above come to fore in March 2015, and August 2016.
The opposing tan trendlines represent a large expanding wedge pattern of which the Dow is presently breaking above in bullish form.  The lower falling boundary to this expanding wedge registers south of Dow 6000 in the years 2015 and beyond. 
In closing, the chart above takes a closer look at some prospective turn months remaining for the current calendar year.  The present month of March 2014 marks the first of three nearby turn-months followed by August and October of 2014.   Also noted on this chart is an additional upside price target of 16600.

The Chart Cast Pilot and Elliott Wave Technology’s Guardian Revere Long-Term Trend Monitor are the proud sponsors of the preceding analysis brief. 
Until Next Time,

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