Monday, October 31, 2022

When Will the Bear Market End?


The following is my first post in quite some time, possibly my last.  

Four years before its arrival, in March 2017, I posited that 2021 would be a year of significant import for numerous technical reasons. Namely, that 2021 would mark the end of a Secular Bull market in financial assets.

The Nasdaq topped in late 2021, followed quickly by a top in the S&P 500 and the Dow in early 2022. My prediction for a market top back in 2017 was accurate.   

I titled that article; 2021, Poised to be a Critical Year, which you can read in the link. 

Sell in May and Go Away - for 13 years!

As we approach the close of 2022, I am preparing to permanently retire my last remaining subscription after nearly 2-decades of service.  

The closing signal I issued for my remaining subscribers was a bearish sell signal on the S&P 500 from a price of 4081.27 for the week ending May 9, 2022.

I trust this will become prudent guidance and that it will endow me with a noble and honorable legacy of some sort. Especially so if this Secular Bear ends up lasting 13 years as projected.

A Full-Scale Depression is Now Upon Us

Though a cleansing depression (Secular Bear Market) should have commenced in 2008, the financial alchemists had one last bubble up their sleeves.  

It's the granddaddy of them all, the Sovereign Debt Bubble, from which there is no more road left to kick the can.  

The 64-TRILLION dollar question is whether it will be a deflationary or inflationary depression.

A deflationary cleansing would be the best medicine and elicit the quickest and most healthy recovery on the other side of this assured economic armageddon. 

Given such logic and utility, my best guess is that the powers that be will do just the opposite and self-induce an inflationary depression. With ignorance from the majority and malice from many, political correctness, greed, and expediency will drive them to such ends.

I suspect we are more likely to have an inflationary depression because inflation manifests more scapegoats for authorities to lay blame versus defaulting on the debt they created and declaring bankruptcy. 

The Great Reset of the Awakened (not the woke) Let's Hope

Until stolen by the delusional and ill-educated woke, the term "Reset" was bandied about by critical thinkers throughout the early 2000s.  

The word reset referred to a "monetary reset" by returning to sound money or classic gold/silver standard versus a fiat paper currency backed by nothing but inflationary debts in perpetuity.

As all fiat currencies have done throughout history, the US Federal Reserve Note shall return to its intrinsic value, ZERO. The same fate shall befall any Digital Central Bank Fiat Currency based on perpetual debt.

Given these tectonic shifts and changes in monetary regimes don't happen overnight, I suspect 13 years from 2021 is ample time for such a transition. 2034 (plus or minus a year) also coincides with a Fibonacci Turn Year Cycle that comes due at that time.

Prepare for the Worst / Hope for the Best

Let us hope and pray that we avert the World Economic Forum's woke rendition of the Great Reset.   

Their idea of the woke reset has nothing to do with a return to sound money and the economic freedom, peace, and prosperity it brings.  

On the contrary, a woke reset shall usher in more degenerate dystopian and totalitarian upside-down ideologies.  

If you get Woke, you go broke.

If you stay awake, you take - take back what you deserve and that which is earned and rightfully yours for the taking.

Awake, we take back our freedom and prosperity. In contrast, the WEF woke reset will further enslave the ignorant masses by design while enriching the power elite to mind-numbing have and have-not extremes. 

I Hope I'm Wrong

I hope this dire prediction is wrong simply because of the widespread pain and suffering required for proper cleansing.   

If somehow possible to maintain a tolerable status quo without worsening the inevitable consequences, even more, I would choose to do so.  

Frankly, the situation we find ourselves in will neither remain tolerable nor will it miraculously correct itself amid a generational cycle.

All we can do is stay awake, prepare, and hope for the best.