Friday, September 13, 2013

Like I Said: It Ain’t Over Till it’s Over

As silver was nearing recent heights amidst a rather robust awakening from a crushing low at $18.18 per ounce in mid-July, just one month ago, I said that the long-term bear market in the monetary metals is not over - until it is over.  I am still waiting for such confirmation.
The move down from the recent high of 25.12 has retraced just over 50% of the most recent advance.  Pretty steep for a 4th wave decline but still in the ballpark.

Fret not bulls, so long as the market remains above 20.06 then soon goes on to print a fresh high above that of 25.12, the case for a major bottom in July remains quite plausible.
Though steep, the move down from 25.12 is corrective thus far.  Given the duration and sideways nature of the plausible 2-wave down to 19.10, and despite its depth, the current decline vs. the brief pause from 23.60 to 22.45, appears more fitting for an answering and alternating in form, 4th wave.  Time will tell.  For now however, the long-term trend remains down, the near-term trend remains up, and the short-term trend - down.
Meanwhile, back at the golden ranch (referring to the Chart-Cast Pilot portfolio), current open trade profits for active members shadowing our short-term trading guidance are well north of $6500.00 per contract held.  Such profits will buy you over nine years of monthly service.  Ya think there’s some value there?  Do the math.
 Members replicating our medium-term portfolio in the gold space are sporting open profits in excess of 20%, while long-term metals investors continue to hedge short with open profits in excess of 17.5%.  Can you say WINNING consistently across the board?
 Below are the Chart-Cast Pilots respective multi-year equity curves for each timeframe.  Looks to me like trade profits in each timeframe display a proven history of delivering absolute returns regardless of market cycles and direction.  What say you? 
Do you think that shadowing such strategies would pay off more profitably than going all-in from rather valid emotional BUY NOW pitches claiming that gold has bottomed and is going to 10,000 per ounce any day now?  Just sayin’... 
To each his own, but I would recommend considering the weight and assurance of a clearly proven track record alongside a fully accounted for trade history, replete with timeframe specific guidance over that of the basic fundamental rally cry to simply jump on board and go all-in without regard for any immediate downside risk.  
Despite the longer-term cyclical bearish trends currently in force, I remain bullish both Silver and Gold from an even longer-term secular perspective.

In closing, no matter what unfolds, when or how, we should all realize there is an abundance of shocks waiting in destiny’s queue that will affect everyone’s immediate and longer-term future.
As such, if you have yet to do so, there is no time like the present to take essential precautions.

 Ten things you can do right now to buffer inevitable shocks of all shapes and sizes:

  • Get out of debt (100% debt free is the ultimate goal)
  • Covet and protect your cash flows
  • Maintain physical cash on hand (6-12 months of living expenses)
  • Maintain physical possession of Gold and Silver  (re-balance annually at 15% of net worth)
  • Hedge all bets using separate brokerages accounts that enable true strategic diversification
  • Use timeframe specific strategies to manage like accounts
  • Maintain prudent unbiased disciplines in executing and managing your strategic plans

Additional Resources:
For the average long-term investor self-directing exposure to the S&P 500, Gold, and Silver, the Guardian Revere Trend Monitor is an excellent long-term market timing and alert-service with an outstanding record of accomplishment in keeping its members on the right side of long-term trends. 
For active traders and investors, the Chart Cast Pilot takes it up several notches in sharing its programmed trades across all three time-frames in the major indices and among a basket of the most widely held stocks.

It is time to move toward that which best assures safe and profitable passage.

If you are not sure what kind of trader/investor you are, click here to find out which of our electronic trading-alert services might suit you best. 
For additional information and verified performance statistics, click here, or here.