With the global economy teetering on the brink, some big transnational corporations are coming under pressure. Today we are going to share a complete work-up on Caterpillar, which is one of the largest of such companies.
Taking our exclusive charting and forecasting work to the next level, here we will share with readers several pages of the most comprehensive coverage found daily within the Chart-Cast Pilot.
The Chart-Cast Pilot (CCP) goes one-step beyond incredible chart analysis in providing users with specific points of engagement amid three timeframes, short-term, medium-term, and long-term.
In addition to providing specific trading and investment guidance in three distinct timeframes, the CCP service also provides a full complement of chart analysis to go with it.
Before we bring you up to speed on CAT, let us first take you back to a long-term analysis page dispatched from the Chart-Cast Pilot back on March 01, 2012.
We have highlighted the date of this CCP subscriber dispatch in yellow on the chart below. The visual wave-count we had illustrated shortly after CAT had set a new print high at 116.95, clearly anticipated an intermediate (c) wave decline toward the $80 dollar level, or lower.
To the left, in the text column beneath the chart image, the commentary and forecast furnished back in March of 2012 speaks for itself.
Beneath the chart to the right, we provide contextual links along with a graphic read, which we update daily, on the all-important US-Dollar, Long-term interest rates, and the infamous risk-on, risk-off VIX.
The chart above was then, and the chart below is NOW. Today’s sister chart rendered below, illustrates a near perfect forecast and price path projection from three months prior.
Take note that with the exception of some minor adjustments to long-term trendlines as dictated exclusively by the dynamic price action - and not by a dogmatic or deterministic approach toward forcing a count or forecast, in the 3-months that have expired, our analysis and notes have remained fixed, and thus far, right on target.
The less the number of revisions to an Elliott wave count, the more skilled and accurate is the technician responsible for such.
Okay, with the long-term chart analysis out of the way, let us now get you up to speed on CAT in three actionable timeframes.
The following page from our most recent CCP update displays the chart analysis and ongoing trading guidance for long-term investment accounts. Take note that despite the accuracy of our forecast projecting the 116.95 print high as a (b) wave crest at intermediate degree, our longer-term trading model remains bullish.
Directly under the price chart, the CCP provides an updated position and performance status based on our trading models engagement. It shows that on 11/13/2009 we moved long CAT at an entry price of $58.38. It also updates the current price at 82.90 showing 24.52-points of profit, a 42% gain in open equity.
At one’s discretion, one may opt to take several possible actions with the information provided daily.
For example:
The lower panel in the price chart observes position or signal status and alerts, which in this case, remains in the green – or bullish. The middle panel above it, showing a drawdown in peak equity from the start of the month (despite the fact that this remains an open long-term position with profits in excess of 40%) monitors month-to-date equity, which is an industry standard practice of mark-to-market accounting.
Once again, the commentary provided beneath the chart and position/performance status-line speaks for itself.
In providing you with the next current page of the CCP, we will bring you up to speed on our Mid-Level trading accounts.
In the chart below, note that in contrast to long-term investment positions, our Mid-Level trading accounts have already begun hedging the stability of the longer-term uptrend by initiating short positions back on April 26, 2012 from a price of $104.24 per share.
Take note of the dynamic wave counts, trade triggers, and price targets resident on the Mid-Level trading chart. Although based on the longer-term chart, which suggests that the current decline might be close to completing a pending terminal toward a bullish intermediate term (c) wave trough, the Mid-Level chart is reflecting more patience in allowing the price action to dictate the nature of the decline and the degree of trend to which it may belong.
Outside the purview of the trading model from an Elliott wave perspective, the Mid-Level wave analysis leaves the door open for a significantly larger move down to end the intermediate (b) wave terminal. Namely, that the current decline may be only marking a smaller minor-degree –a- wave base within the larger fractal of the bearish (b) wave, which is arguably still in progress.
Once again, the daily evolution resident within the dynamic price action shall govern the progress of the unfolding wave count. As we wait for confirmations and additional data points to manifest in order to do this, we have a trading model that has already positioned us profitably short (up more than 20%) within this timeframe, and several additional visual guides to assist in managing such positions based upon the unique discretion of each individual privy to such information.
Along with other pertinent and actionable information noted outside the purview of the trading strategy, the Mid-Level chart is also monitoring the trade trigger trajectory defending the nearby $81.00 price target.
Once again, the commentary provided beneath the chart and position/performance status-line speaks for itself.
In providing you with the last page current within the CCP, we will bring you up to speed on our Short-Term trading accounts.
In the chart below, note that in concert with Mid-Level trading positions, our Short-Term trading accounts are also hedging the stability of the longer-term uptrend by initiating short positions back on April 25, 2012 from a price of $104.30 per share.
Take note that in general, we do not waste precious time and energy in splitting hairs as to what the smaller wave counts might be on the Short-Term Trading charts.
With more than 20-years of intense application, we have found that to do so (although fun and entertaining – especially when one gets lucky) causes a great deal of harm and distortion as opposed to the results of one being patient, and allowing the price action at larger degrees of trend to dictate the best plausible wave counts. Adhering to such a discipline in accordance with classic tenets of Elliott wave theory eliminates a vast number a very bad calls.
As we wait for confirmations and additional data points to monitor the progression of Elliott waves unfolding at higher degrees of trend, we have a trading model that has already positioned us profitably to the short side (up nearly 17%) within this timeframe.
As with all of the CCP charts, we provide several additional visual guides to assist in managing short-term positions based upon the unique discretion of each individual privy to such information.
Along with other pertinent and actionable information noted outside the purview of the trading strategy, the Short-Term chart is also monitoring the trade trigger trajectory defending the nearby $81.00 price target.
Once again, the commentary provided beneath the chart and position/performance status-line speaks for itself.
Success in Progress
Given the fundamental effects and prospects of a slowing global economy amid the backdrop of a major (but stalling) bull market rally, which followed the largest financial bailout in US history and the seemingly never-ending prospects of circular European bailouts in kind, we rest our case, outlook, and positions on Caterpillar.
In sharing with you the status and means by which we impartially monitor and engage markets in any macro environment, it is our intent and mission to provide you with a level of confidence and assurance that you could not attain otherwise.
In closing, we shall part with another feature provided daily in the Chart-Cast Pilot. A summary of all positions held within each market and timeframe observed:
As evidenced by the above record of account, we achieve similar and consistent success across the board in engaging both the broad market as well as individual stocks.
Though perhaps not quite as precise as the work-up here on CAT, for an encore of similar merit, we offer you a video version of the Pilot’s success in navigating subscribers through the NETFLIX debacle.
