As stated in the past, regardless of the timeframe under observation, an existing well-established trend shall remain in force until decisively taken over by a new opposing trend. Three years of a long-term downtrend in the monetary metals has us on high alert for early signs of a bullish trend reversal.
Although lower lows shall remain plausible until a new longer-term uptrend confirms, we are observing the move up from 18.97 rather closely. The genesis of such a reversal usually begins with a five-wave impulsive advance.
Thus far, this latest move up off 18.97 low is displaying a three-wave corrective move vs. a five-wave impulsive affair. At minimum, to confirm a five-wave upward advance from the 18.97 low, we would need to see a print north of 20.335 while holding price action above the 19.465 wave-1 labeled in black.
More convincing a start would involve said move north of 20.335 marking that of a 3rd wave (noted black tag) followed by a 4th wave decline and a subsequent 5th wave advance. Such price action would better-confirm the possibility of a bullish impulsive advance from the last of three bottoms that have established themselves over the last month.
Given the time, depth, and severity of the ongoing bear market, the triple bottom well established thus far at the 19.00 level, is an area of critical support. Loss of said support would increase odds for a retest of the 18.00 handle.
Until Next Time,
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