Technically Speaking:

In the Heat of Battle

After nearly tagging the upper end of its multi-month trading range seven sessions ago, the S&P has settled the week back down near the middle of its range. Friday closed the week with an inside compression bar, which could set the stage for some fireworks early next week.

The S&P has given back 50% of the rather impressive advance from its mid-June 1258 low.   It is now critical that S&P bulls muscle the index back up above the 1356 level. Failure to do so in the next ten sessions or so, will place the index at risk of retesting and possibly breaching the lower end of its range.

Though our proprietary trend signal bias is still bullish, the market remains range bound between 1249 and 1370 over the near to medium term.   Victors of this multi-month sideways battle will celebrate upon a 120-point expansion or a 120-point contraction of the current range.

Longer-term, bulls will celebrate the spoils of this skirmish round about the 1490 handle, or about 13% north of current levels.   Their bearish opponents will collect their bounty down around the 1130 level, which equates to a 14% decline from this week’s close. So long as both contingents are generally successful at defending their respective range boundaries, the battle will continue.   Right now, this particular battle is dead even.

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I trust and hope that you have extracted something of actionable value from this edition of Technically Speaking.

Until next time,

Trade Better/Invest Smarter Joe Russo Publisher and Chief Market Analyst Elliott Wave Technology

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Elliott Wave Technology's Near Term Outlook is for those who demand masterfully consistent and objective technical analysis that visually lays out actionable ideas from which to engage the broad markets over the short and near term. The publication is delivered to institutional and private clients each Monday, Wednesday, and Friday evening. The Near Term Outlook covers 7 essential broad markets.

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US DOLLAR | DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS | S&P-500 | NASDAQ-100 | GOLD | CRUDE OIL | BONDS

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Technically Speaking:

Near Term Outlook S&P 500 

Over the near-term, since mid-February of 2011, the S&P 500 has been going nowhere, stuck in a multi-month horizontal range that is bound between a floor at 1249, and a ceiling at 1370. Following a rapid move back up toward the upper end of its range after testing its base in mid-June, S&P 500 bulls are expressing some reservations.

Short-term, we have circled capture of an old 13-point downside target of 1326 from early July, and draw your attention to a sell side setup mapped out last Friday, which currently cites a short-term downside target at 1313. 

Our recent work in the US Dollar conveyed that the US currency was coiling and set to unwind . Well, unwind it did, at least over the short-term.

Trading with a respectable level of inversion to broad equities the recent upside move in the dollar added confidence to our outlook for the imminent weakness we are now experiencing in the S&P 500.

Technically Speaking Video

                Select the 480p setting after starting the player for the ^ best quality viewing.

I trust and hope that you have extracted something of actionable value from this edition of Technically Speaking. 

Until next time, 

Trade Better/Invest Smarter 

Joe Russo
Publisher and Chief Market Analyst
Elliott Wave Technology

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Elliott Wave Technology's Near Term Outlook is for those who demand masterfully consistent and objective technical analysis that visually lays out actionable ideas from which to engage the broad markets over the short and near term. The publication is delivered to institutional and private clients each Monday, Wednesday, and Friday evening. 
The Near Term Outlook covers 7 essential broad markets.  

US DOLLAR | DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS | S&P-500 | NASDAQ-100 | GOLD |
CRUDE OIL | BONDS

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Technically Speaking:

Wrap: Coiling Dollar Set to Unwind

Over the medium-term, like many other broad based indices, the dollar continues to consolidate in a rather large sideways range. Its boundaries however, are not visually discernable in looking out over the short and near-term as we’re doing here.

Over the near-term, the dollar has been coiling in a contracting triangle from late May. Although it reserves the right to continue coiling for a couple of more weeks, the longer it does so, the more violent the unwind may be.

If it goes too far, and moseys its way right on through the apex without fanfare, well then nothing may come of it at all. However, a near-term upside break or downside breach of the pattern carries a directional impact on the order of 2 ½ - 3 ¼ points from the point of escape.

Short-term, we have circled capture of the 75.25 target from Wednesday, and draw your attention to a potentially potent buy trigger just above the market. 

So long as the 74.84 pivot low holds, this short-term long entry set-up could jettison the dollar in excess of 0.50 cents in the blink of an eye.

Technically Speaking Video

            Select the 480p setting after starting the player for the ^ best quality viewing.

I trust and hope that you have extracted something of actionable value from this edition of Technically Speaking. 

Until next time, 

Trade Better/Invest SmarterJoe Russo
Publisher and Chief Market Analyst
Elliott Wave Technology

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Elliott Wave Technology's Near Term Outlook is for those who demand masterfully consistent and objective technical analysis that visually lays out actionable ideas from which to engage the broad markets over the short and near term. The publication is delivered to institutional and private clients each Monday, Wednesday, and Friday evening. 
The Near Term Outlook covers 7 essential broad markets.  

US DOLLAR | DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS | S&P-500 | NASDAQ-100 | GOLD |
CRUDE OIL | BONDS

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Technically Speaking:

Dollar Holds Trendline Support 

With Joe Russo, Elliott Wave Technology | July 6, 2011 

Update: Near Term Outlook for the US Dollar
Of late, trading sessions in which general equities rise in tandem with the Dollar have been few and far between. Wednesday provided one such occurrence. As we all know, one day does not constitute a trend.

The dollar bounced nicely off Tuesdays turn-bar, and is attempting to reclaim trade above the solid green trendline, which would defend an upside price target of 76.41.

Short-term, the dollar has broken out above the 74.69 pivot citing a short-term upside price target at 75.25, which also happens to be the nearest overhead resistance level.

Technically Speaking Video

I trust and hope that you have extracted something of actionable value from this syndicated distribution of Technically Speaking. 

Elliott Wave Technology’s Near Term Outlook is for those who demand masterfully consistent and objective technical analysis that visually lays out actionable ideas from which to engage the broad markets over the short and near term.  The publication is delivered to institutional and private clients each Monday, Wednesday, and Friday evening. 

The Near Term Outlook covers 7 essential broad markets.

US DOLLAR | DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS | S&P-500

NASDAQ-100 | GOLD | CRUDE OIL | BONDS 

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Technically Speaking:

Dollar Flirts With Trendline Support

Near Term Outlook for the US Dollar

After tagging a short-term downside whipsaw reversal target of 74.35 last Thursday, the US Dollar is just a whisker away from (TLS) trendline support on the daily bar chart. 

Near-term, if daily TLS fails, it elects a bearish downside sell trigger upon breach of this nearby support trajectory.  From such a breach, we’re looking at a downside risk potential in excess of 3-points. 

Short-term, Dollar bulls have their work cut out as they must first defend horizontal support at 74.19 then run price back up well north of the recent pivot high at 74.69.  If they fail, 73.92 is the nearest downside price target vs. that pivot.

Technically Speaking Video

I trust and hope that you have extracted something of actionable value from this syndicated distribution of Technically Speaking. 

Elliott Wave Technology’s Near Term Outlook is for those who demand masterfully consistent and objective technical analysis that visually lays out actionable ideas from which to engage the broad markets over the short and near term.  The publication is delivered to institutional and private clients each Monday, Wednesday, and Friday evening.

The Near Term Outlook covers 7 essential broad markets.

US DOLLAR | DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS | S&P-500

NASDAQ-100 | GOLD | CRUDE OIL | BONDS

Read More ->>